The Rooftop Solar Payback Period Everyone Quotes Is Based on a Rule Indonesia Scrapped in 2024
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7 min read
Search for a rooftop solar payback period in Indonesia and nearly every result says the same thing: 5 to 7 years. That figure is still being published in 2026 guides. It is also wrong for almost anyone installing solar today, because the rule it was calculated under, a full credit for excess electricity sent back to the grid, was scrapped by the government in 2024. Here is what the payback period actually looks like now, worked out with 2026 installation prices and 2026 electricity tariffs.
Until early 2024, a household with rooftop solar could run its electricity meter backward. Extra power the panels made during the day and did not use got fed into PLN's grid, and PLN credited that amount against the household's bill later, a scheme called net metering.
Peraturan Menteri ESDM No. 2/2024, in force since 31 January 2024, ended that. Per the regulation and Kementerian ESDM's own published summary, excess electricity a household's solar system sends to the grid is no longer counted as a reduction to the bill at all. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) and multiple energy-policy outlets covering the rule at the time flagged the same consequence: solar's economics got worse specifically for households, because a typical home's electricity use peaks in the evening while solar output peaks at midday, and any daytime surplus that used to earn a credit now simply goes to PLN for free. The same rule also replaced the old "up to 100% of your connected power" installation cap with a capacity quota set by the Directorate General of Electricity every five years, so even the size of system you are allowed to install is no longer purely your own choice.
Installers quote residential on-grid systems, the kind with no battery, at roughly Rp15 million to Rp20 million per kWp (kilowatt-peak, the system's rated output capacity) as of mid-2026, according to multiple installer price guides published this year. A 3 kWp system, commonly cited as the most popular size for an Indonesian household, therefore costs somewhere between Rp45 million and Rp60 million installed.
Industry estimates commonly put Indonesian rooftop solar output at roughly 4 to 5.48 kWh per kWp per day, varying by region and roof orientation. Using a conservative 4 kWh per kWp per day, a 3 kWp system generates about 12 kWh a day, or 360 kWh a month.
Without a battery and without net metering, only the share of that 360 kWh you use while it is being generated actually lowers your bill. Energy-sector analysis of the post-2024 rules puts a household's realistic self-consumption rate at around 35% for a home that is empty on weekdays, rising to about 60% for a home with meaningful daytime load (someone working from home, a pool pump, appliances that can be timed to run at midday).
Both PLN's tariff and your own daytime habits decide the answer. As of Q3 2026, the flat non-subsidized rate for the R-3/TR tier (6,600 VA and above, the connection size that usually pairs with a 3 kWp system) is Rp1,699.53 per kWh, unchanged since Q2 2026 and confirmed in effect through September 2026.
Annual saving = Self-consumed kWh per year × Rp1,699.53
| Self-consumption | Self-consumed electricity | Annual saving |
|---|---|---|
| 35% (home empty on weekdays) | 126 kWh/month | ≈ Rp2,569,700 |
| 60% (meaningful daytime load) | 216 kWh/month | ≈ Rp4,405,200 |
Divide the installed cost by the annual saving, and the payback period spans a wide range depending on which end of the cost and usage bands you land on:
| Scenario | Installed cost | Annual saving | Payback period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best case: cheaper install, high daytime use | Rp45 million | Rp4,405,200 | ≈ 10.2 years |
| Typical: mid install, high daytime use | Rp52.5 million | Rp4,405,200 | ≈ 11.9 years |
| Typical: mid install, low daytime use | Rp52.5 million | Rp2,569,700 | ≈ 20.4 years |
| Worst case: pricier install, low daytime use | Rp60 million | Rp2,569,700 | ≈ 23.4 years |
That 10 to 14 year range for a home with real daytime consumption lines up with what solar-industry analysts publishing updated 2026 break-even guides have separately concluded once they account for the same rule change, rather than reusing the pre-2024 assumption. A household that is empty all day, the most common working pattern in urban Indonesia, sits closer to 20 years, brushing up against the roughly 25-year performance life installers typically quote for the panels themselves.
Turn the same numbers around and a 45 million rupiah system generating 4.4 million rupiah a year in savings is behaving like an asset with a roughly 9.8% simple annual return. A 60 million rupiah system generating 2.6 million a year is closer to 4.3%. For comparison, Bank Indonesia's own benchmark rate, the BI-Rate, has sat at 5.75% since its August 2026 policy meeting, a figure you can check any time on NetWort's macro dashboard. The best-case solar scenario clears that bar. The worst-case one does not, and unlike a BI-rate-linked deposit, the solar "return" is illiquid, carries equipment and installation risk, and cannot be withdrawn early.
NetWort's manual asset categories do not have a dedicated "solar" entry; a rooftop system is a fixture attached to your house, so it belongs under the Real Estate category on the Holdings page. That category's default appreciation rate is 3% a year, which values the physical installation itself, not the separate stream of bill savings it produces. If you install solar, track the two effects separately: log the system as a Real Estate asset at its installed cost, and treat the monthly saving on your electricity bill as what it actually is, a cut to a recurring expense, not a return credited to the asset's value.
Before you sign an installer's quote, ask specifically how many hours a day your household actually uses power, since that single number, not the panel brand or the marketing payback period, is what decides whether you land in the 10-year range or the 20-year one. If you are weighing other physical assets against a straightforward cash return, our breakdown of farmland as an income-generating asset in Indonesia walks through the same cost-versus-cash-flow logic for a very different kind of property.