P2P Lending Platforms Advertise 15-20% a Year. Here's What the Default Rate Does to That Number
5 min read
Loading...
5 min read
You lend Rp 10.000.000 on a P2P platform. The page says "up to 15% a year."
Twelve months later, how much do you actually keep? Not 15%. This post shows why, using the default rate that Indonesia's financial regulator (OJK) publishes every month.
P2P lending (also called fintech lending or pindar) means you lend money to borrowers through an app. You earn interest. The platform is the middleman. A default means a borrower stops paying.
OJK tracks bad loans on these platforms with a number called TWP90. It stands for "Tingkat Wanprestasi 90 hari," the 90-day default rate.
It is the share of loans that are more than 90 days overdue. A loan that is that late is unlikely to be paid back on time, if at all.
OJK expects each platform to keep TWP90 at 5% or below.
Here is where the industry stood in July 2026, based on press reports of OJK data:
| Measure | July 2026 |
|---|---|
| Loans outstanding | Rp 105,63 triliun |
| Growth over one year | 24,76% |
| Industry TWP90 | 4,32% (up from 4,26% in June) |
| Platforms above the 5% limit | 16 |
Sources: Kontan and Bisnis.com, reporting OJK figures. We read these through search summaries, not the OJK release itself.
Notice two things. The average looks calm. But 16 platforms are over the limit, and an average hides them.
The industry number is a blend of many platforms. You do not lend to the industry. You lend to one platform.
A real case: in 2025 the platform Akseleran missed payments of about Rp 178 miliar, and press reports put its TWP90 above 60%. OJK then restricted its business activities. According to the company, six borrowers failed to repay at the same time in March 2025 (reported by Kontan and Bisnis.com).
Reports gave slightly different TWP90 figures (60% to 64%), so we only say "above 60%."
The lesson is not about one name. It is that a few large loans failing together can wipe out many small lenders' returns.
Now the math. This is NetWort's own illustration, not a market average. We make three simple assumptions:
| Share of your money that defaults | Interest earned | Tax on interest (15%) | Principal lost | Net result | Net return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | Rp 1.500.000 | Rp 225.000 | Rp 0 | Rp 1.275.000 | 12,75% |
| 4,32% (July 2026 industry TWP90) | Rp 1.500.000 | Rp 225.000 | Rp 432.000 | Rp 843.000 | 8,43% |
| 10% | Rp 1.500.000 | Rp 225.000 | Rp 1.000.000 | Rp 275.000 | 2,75% |
| 20% | Rp 1.500.000 | Rp 225.000 | Rp 2.000.000 | -Rp 725.000 | -7,25% |
The ad said 15%. With tax alone you are at 12,75%. With an industry-average default level, about 8,4%.
Break-even is simple. At these assumptions, if more than 12,75% of your money defaults, you lose money.
This table is a rough tool, not a forecast.
TWP90 is a snapshot of loans that are late right now. Some late loans are repaid later, so lifetime losses can be lower. Also, a platform's advertised return may already assume some losses.
But the other direction is real too. Loans that are not yet 90 days late are not counted. And if you hold only a few loans, one default hits you much harder than the average suggests.
Under Finance Ministry Regulation PMK 69/2022, interest you earn from P2P lending is taxed. For domestic taxpayers, platforms withhold 15% of the gross interest (Article 23 income tax) and give you a withholding slip. The interest also goes in your annual tax return. Details are in the Directorate General of Taxes explainer.
We read this through search summaries and could not open the page itself. Check your own platform's withholding slip and ask a tax adviser how it applies to you.
A 12% or 8% net return only means something next to alternatives. A bank deposit or government bond pays less, but it carries far less default risk.
To see today's benchmark, check the BI rate and bond yields on the NetWort macro page. We also compared higher-yield crypto lending in DeFi lending yield and risk. And if you are weighing lending against paying down your own debt, see pay off debt or invest first.
If you cannot answer the first one, you are guessing.
NetWort has no separate P2P category yet. The closest fit is Fixed Income, and it has no default rate, so you type in one.
Open Holdings, add your P2P balance under Fixed Income, and enter the net return you actually expect, such as the 8,43% from the table, instead of the advertised 15%. Your portfolio will then show a number you can plan around.